AGP Executive Report

Turkey restaurant attack: A gunman opened fire in southern Türkiye near Mersin/Tarsus, killing at least six and wounding eight, with reports pointing to a restaurant dispute and a wider escape-route spree; police are running a major manhunt using helicopters and drones. Food-price pressure: In the U.S., cost-of-living anxiety is rising again, with food inflation still a key worry as grocery prices climb; in Sabah, Malaysia, chicken and egg prices are being blamed on higher imported corn costs feeding poultry. Middle East tourism & hospitality: Saudi luxury travel gets a boost as Four Seasons Resort and Residences Red Sea at Shura Island welcomes first guests from 20 May under a Red Sea Global joint venture. Market watch: A new global cholera vaccine market outlook pegs growth toward USD 649m by 2035, while specialty fruit coatings are forecast to reach USD 7.6bn by 2033 on demand for shelf-life and clean-label solutions.

Turkey Violence Spillover: A gunman opened fire in a restaurant in Tarsus, near Mersin, killing at least four and injuring others, with police launching a major manhunt after the suspect fled by car; reports also link the attack to a wider local feud and say the shooter may be a teenager. Food Cost Pressure: In the US, grocery prices jumped 2.9% year-on-year in April—the biggest annual rise since 2023—pushing overall food inflation above 3% as energy costs, logistics disruption, and higher beef and coffee prices bite. Middle East Trade & Logistics: Irish food exporters are warning that Middle East conflict-related sea freight disruption, rerouting, and port delays are squeezing demand and raising costs across GCC and Iraq routes. F&B Growth Signals: UAE coconut-water brand Thai Coco is expanding nationwide distribution, while Abu Dhabi event listings keep drawing attention to high-profile dining and entertainment demand.

New Approvals: Boehringer Ingelheim’s JASCAYD® (nerandomilast) has been approved by Japan’s MHLW for adults with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and progressive pulmonary fibrosis—Japan becomes the fourth market worldwide to greenlight the first oral PDE4B inhibitor in these indications. Middle East Expansion: Chinese herbal tea brand WALOVI is pushing global growth with distribution deals across 10 countries in South America, Africa and Central Asia, building on its Saudi launch and new international canned formats. Hospitality & City Life: Chris Lucas is planning a Hong Kong-inspired restaurant plus a Greek venue in Melbourne, arguing dining precincts are key to reviving city centres beyond office hours. F&B Demand Signals: A US inflation snapshot shows food prices still climbing, with beef and “food away from home” both pressuring budgets. Regional Food Creativity: Cairo’s Tehina rolls out new bread puddings (Om Ali’s cousin energy) as Egyptian dining leans into dessert-led buzz.

Markets & Energy: Global markets weighed firmer US inflation (April CPI 3.8%) against cautious optimism from Trump’s Beijing visit, while analysts warned oil demand is starting to weaken—an early sign of “demand destruction” as energy shocks from the Iran war keep costs sticky. Middle East F&B & Hospitality: American Express Middle East is now the Official Payment Partner of Bahrain’s Beyon Al Dana Amphitheatre, adding presale access and fast-lane entry that also extends to select food and beverage outlets. Egypt Real Estate & Education: IMKAN Misr signed an MoU with AASTMT to allocate 45 feddans in Alburouj (New Heliopolis) for a new campus—another push to bundle lifestyle, services, and learning in one integrated community. Food Prices Pressure: Separate reporting points to how higher energy and supply disruptions are feeding into everyday food costs, with tomatoes cited as a clear example of price spikes hitting restaurant menus. Local Life & Travel: A Morocco travel warning story highlights how the country’s food and atmosphere can “recalibrate” visitors’ expectations—good for tourism, but a reminder that demand is being shaped by price and experience.

Tomato shock hits restaurants: In Southern Colorado, tomato prices have “absolutely quadrupled,” with one Colorado Springs diner saying a case jumped from about $40 to $100–$120, driven by Iran-linked oil costs plus Mexico crop and tariff pressure—an ingredient squeeze that forces menu rationing. Industrial electrification push: A Pakistan roadmap argues food-and-beverage (alongside paper, textiles and fertilisers) could cut costs and emissions by electrifying heat processes for low-to-medium temperatures, reducing exposure to gas price swings. Health alert with food-travel links: A rare Andes hantavirus outbreak tied to a South Atlantic cruise is triggering global monitoring after deaths and illnesses, spotlighting how travel and shared spaces can amplify risk. Hospitality hiring in the Gulf: Kuwait’s Ray Hotel by Cloud 7 appoints Mohammad Taha as GM, signaling continued investment in seaside lifestyle stays. UAE/region Eid timing: Eid al-Adha 2026 hinges on new-moon sightings expected around May 17–18, shaping food and retail planning across Saudi and the UAE.

Security Crackdown: A senior Iraqi militia commander, Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, has been arrested and sent to the US over alleged coordination of antisemitic attacks across Britain, Europe and North America, including a London synagogue firebombing and plots targeting Jewish, Israeli and US-linked sites. Eid Timing Watch: Eid al-Adha 2026 hinges on moon sighting—expected around May 17 in Saudi Arabia and parts of the UK, which would place Eid around May 27. UAE Retail Support: Foodics launched “Forward Together” to help UAE F&B operators with flexible payments, free ordering tools, and analytics access as businesses absorb cost pressure. Supply Chain Pressure: Japan is removing free supermarket plastic bags as naphtha shortages linked to Middle East tensions ripple into everyday packaging. Beverage Business: Supreme PLC is partnering with Tonino Lamborghini to roll out a six-SKU energy drink range across the UK, Europe, the Middle East and China. Health/Industry: Enhertu was approved in the US for two new HER2-positive early breast cancer indications, expanding treatment options.

Food Inflation Pressure: Nigeria’s inflation is easing in April but still “fragile,” with food inflation at 16.06% and core at 15.86%, and CPPE says food, transport, energy, healthcare and restaurant services drive most of the pressure. Middle East Energy Spillover: The wider Iran–Israel conflict is still feeding costs globally—fuel and shipping strains are already pushing restaurants and delivery operators to plan price rises (reported 5–10% in some markets) as energy and supply shocks ripple through menus. Water Stress in War Zones: In Sudan, prolonged power outages and service collapse are turning drinking water into a daily struggle, with families queuing for unsafe supplies and prices rising. Halal Market Momentum: Singapore’s halal food ecosystem keeps expanding, with more certified eateries and a push toward easier access for businesses seeking certification. Hospitality Leadership: Fraser Suites, Abuja, names a new GM focused on protecting the hotel’s service values.

Supply Chain Shock: A new BSI report says supply-chain theft jumped 56% in 2025, with food and beverages the most targeted cargo in South Africa—often via hijacking during transit—while cyberattacks also rose in frequency and sophistication. Food Inflation Watch: April grocery prices rose 0.7% in the US, but analysts warn the next wave could be steeper, with conflict-linked fuel and fertilizer costs pushing annual grocery inflation toward 4%–4.5% by year-end. Hormuz Tensions: Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz continues to rattle shipping and energy prices, keeping pressure on global supply routes. Regional F&B Moves: In the Gulf, Zuma’s Ras Al Khaimah pop-up is extended to April 2027, while UAE logistics giant AD Ports Group reported Q1 profit up 41% on stronger shipping and industrial leases tied to temperature-controlled food flows.

Middle East Inflation Watch: Saudi Arabia’s April inflation stayed steady at 1.7% year-on-year, with housing and rents driving most of the rise and food and beverage up 0.6%—a reminder that cost pressure is still there, but not surging. Energy-to-Food Pressure: Japan’s central bank warns summer price hikes may spread further as firms—including food and hot-spring operators—pass on energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Food Waste Meets Affordability: In the UAE, Peekabox launched an app to sell end-of-day surplus from 1,000+ shops at 50–70% off, aiming to cut waste and ease living costs. Chocolate Innovation: Cargill and Voyage Foods are bringing cocoa-free, plant-based NextCoa chocolate to North America, starting in the US, with bake drops and wafers. Dining Trend Signal: Australia’s 2026 dining report highlights “specific authenticity” and hyper-specialised drinks—niche concepts winning over diners.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure on Food Costs: Fresh flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz—U.S. forces disabling two Iranian oil tankers after overnight exchanges—kept oil prices firm (Brent up to about $101) and underline how quickly regional shipping risk can ripple into grocery bills. Retail Resilience (US): Despite inflation and softer sentiment, U.S. retail sales rose in April, with food service/drinking up 6.2%, suggesting consumers are still spending—just more selectively. Packaging Squeeze (Japan): Ink shortages tied to Middle East conflict are forcing Kagome to simplify ketchup bottle designs, while Calbee is also shifting chip packaging and raising prices on some snacks. Saudi Inflation Cool-Down: Saudi Arabia reported April inflation at 1.7%, with rents stabilizing—an easing backdrop for local food and beverage demand. Middle East Hospitality Moves: Aldar bought a Dubai residential project for $300m, including food-and-beverage space, while Muscat’s Grand Millennium named a new GM to lift service and dining standards.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices are still reacting to the Iran war risk as US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Brent around $101 after fresh flare-ups. Food & Beverage Supply Chain: Japan’s snack maker Calbee is switching some chip and cereal packs to black-and-white ink to cope with Middle East-linked fuel and naphtha disruptions. Hospitality Pressure: In Johor, Malaysia, restaurants are holding prices despite a 20–30% jump in ingredient costs, but owners warn hikes may be unavoidable if the conflict drags on. Retail & Demand Signals: Singapore retail occupancy stayed steady at 93.7% in Q1 2026 as visitor arrivals rose, with food and beverage helping backfill closures. Jobs & Expansion: KFC plans 3,500 new jobs and 100 new stores in South Africa in 2026, betting on local demand even as youth unemployment remains high.

Iran War Fallout on Food Costs: With the Strait of Hormuz still tense, U.S. consumers are feeling it at the till—Seattle-area prices rose 4.9% in April year-on-year, the highest since Aug 2023, driven largely by energy costs (gas up nearly 29% from Feb to Apr). World Cup Food & Drink Marketing: Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Miller Lite is rolling out a limited-edition “Matchball” that holds 12 beers—turning matchday gatherings into a branded take-home moment. Middle East Hospitality in Focus: In Saudi Arabia, app-based services are reshaping daily routines, from groceries to personal care—though users complain prices can feel inflated. Lebanese Dining Opens in Riyadh: Sofitel Riyadh’s new Thurya brings a contemporary Lebanese menu and shared-dish concept to the hotel’s F&B lineup. Local F&B Culture, Not Just Politics: Yemen’s coffeehouse culture is booming in the U.S., with Yemeni-style chains expanding fast as late-night socializing and Arab-American demand grow.

Iran-war grocery squeeze: April food-at-home inflation jumped to 0.7% month-on-month, reversing March’s cooling, as tariffs and fuel/commodity bottlenecks ripple into supermarket prices and shoppers pull back. Oil shock risk: The World Bank warns a prolonged oil-price surge could worsen food insecurity in developing economies, citing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and fertilizer stress. U.S. affordability push: Applebee’s is bringing back an “All You Can Eat” $15.99 deal (dine-in only) as chains lean into value while CPI stays sticky. UAE retail momentum: ADNOC Distribution says Q1 net profit rose 21% and EBITDA hit a record, helped by non-fuel retail and international expansion. Yemen coffee goes global: Yemeni-style coffeehouses are expanding fast in the U.S., with late-night social culture driving demand. Food policy spotlight: FDA leadership shakeup is putting the food program under a new acting commissioner, with industry and advocates watching science, staffing, and political influence.

Markets & Inflation Shock: U.S. stocks hit fresh records after a jobs report showed employers added 115,000 jobs, even as the Iran-linked fuel squeeze keeps pressure on prices—Brent settled at $101.29 and CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, with core inflation also firm. Middle East Supply Chain Ripple: Japan’s Calbee is shifting 14 snack products to black-and-white packaging from late May, blaming a naphtha shortage tied to Middle East tensions—another sign how conflict is reaching food marketing and packaging. Food Retail & Value Moves: Applebee’s is bringing back its “All You Can Eat” deal for $15.99 as diners trade down amid higher costs. Regional Dining Resilience: Tel Aviv EAT Festival runs May 11–14, turning beachfront food culture into a wartime “feast by the sea.” Local Openings: First Watch sets a June 15 debut in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, taking over a former Ruby Tuesday site. Policy Watch: Tamil Nadu orders closure of 717 state liquor outlets, tightening retail access near schools, worship sites and major bus terminals.

Iran-war supply squeeze hits food packaging: Japan’s Calbee is switching some colored snack packs to black-and-white after ink-related shortages tied to Iran-linked oil/chemical disruptions. UAE business keeps moving: Sharjah developer Arada says it will still launch new UAE projects in Dubai and Ras Al Khaimah despite Iran-war uncertainty. Cost pressure shows up in dining promos: Applebee’s brings back unlimited wings/riblets for $15.99 as gas prices keep eating into restaurant budgets. Iraq security and food-safety angle: Iraq reports a fatal checkpoint shooting, drug and wanted-suspect arrests, and a restaurant fire in Diyala—plus officials detain a Kirkuk admin director over alleged illegal frozen-meat imports. Middle East-linked market caution: A survey by the National Association for Business Economics says nearly half of firms report the Iran war has harmed them, with input costs rising and investment/hiring plans downgraded. What’s missing: no major new Middle East F&B deal or policy announcement in the latest hours—most updates are about costs, logistics, and local incidents.

Markets & Oil Shock: U.S. stocks hit fresh records as employers added 115,000 more jobs than expected, but the Iran-linked flare-up in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy risk front and center, with Brent settling around $101. Packaging Pressure: Japan’s Calbee is switching flagship chips to black-and-white packaging after an ink squeeze tied to the Iran war. Beverage Supply Chain Ripple: In India, Diet Coke is back—but in pricier glass bottles—after an aluminum can shortage disrupted deliveries. Local Food Moments: Mother’s Day dining remains a big play, with chains and independents rolling out brunch and buffet specials. Middle East Industry Move: PepsiCo’s Abu Dhabi franchise is investing $82m to boost local production as Iran-war logistics strain imports. Health & Wellness Angle: Singapore’s Yeo Hiap Seng launches sugar-free oolong tea, pushing “no added sugar” demand. Food Tech Glimpse: A robot café debut is slated for the NRA show in Chicago, signaling the next wave of automated service.